Market analysis

One fundamental investor was getting exasperated by a young (and green) technical analyst's argument that technical analysis is best and fundamentals do not mean a thing.
The fundamental investor finally had the last word when he summarised his view on technical analysis with the following - technical analysis is like Janus-faced person who calls a woman 'sister' in the morning and 'wife' in the evening.
(Note: The original dialogue in Hindi sounded much better)

Markets on 28-Aug-08

Markets expected to be even more unpredictable with expiry coupled with weekly inflation numbers.

Key support/resistances for the Nifty are 4230/4260 and 4340/4400.

Our target for Sterlite was met at 620 and 630. We reiterate buy on Sterlite with same targets. Exit out of Maruti call. Continue to hold RPL with a medium-term perspective keeping stop-loss at 154.

Markets on 27Aug08

With just two days to expiry, the market trend is expected to be volatile albeit with a positive bias.
Key resistance/supports for the Nifty are 4350/4400 and 4250/4300. Stocks that look bullish include MUL (targets of 645/660), RPL (targets of 161.5/163/165). Sterlite is another stock that looks bullish (over a slightly longer holding horizon) with tentative targets of 620/630/640.

Entrepreneurial ruminations

Very oft, I have been asked about my entrepreneurial experience. Somehow, I always end up answering “very good”. The truth however, is somewhere in between.
I must admit, that whether it was my first unsuccessful attempt at quitting my job to start up or whether it was when I actually quit to start-up, everybody was very encouraging.

As a friend summarized for me, it is like jumping off a cliff with a Made in Timbucktoo (MIT) parachute. Everyone lauds you for your bravery for jumping off the high cliff. But you really do not know whether MIT will open up at the right time.

I have taken the plunge now and the fall down the cliff is both exciting and scary. Exciting because when I think of the upside and how my company will grow magnamously, I am delighted to dream about it. I am thrilled when I get the first cheque from my clients. And it is “hard earned” money (because its very hard to earn whatever little money you get).

But now that I am on the other side of the fence, I can understand why my colleagues from B-school or work would most likely not take the radical step that I have taken.
Firstly, there is nothing such as a monthly paycheck to keep you going. (How I miss the days when on the 25th of each month I would see my bank account being credited and would be overjoyed as if I had got some new toy.)
Secondly, as an entrepreneur, there is nothing such as well-defined role or work hours. I am my own boss. But that also means that I cannot have friends and relatives take my time for granted. So I have kept an office with fixed hours to maintain the discipline.
Thirdly, as a salaried class, I was so used to things being taken care of e.g. taxes (now I have to get my own CA and pay him for consultation).

One of the more important aspects also was an assurance that there is a dependable clean loo. You have loosies on any day – no problem. Clean loos, enough water, toilet paper and soap. (Right now I have to carry my own for lack of basic toilet infrastructure and a thick hanky to close my nose once inside the toilet).
Of course this is just the beginning. Like any other entrepreneur, I expect things to improve and grow out of my current insignificant existence. Till then, I will continue to carry my own.

Markets on 08Aug08

Markets ended on an almost flatish note today. Markets seem to be testing 4600 levels on the nifty and appear to be unable to sustain it. Inflation will be a non-event in determining market direction for tomorrow given that it was close to expectations. However, given the sharp rise in markets over the past few days, I expect the market to see profit booking. One could see markets testing 4450 levels. Suggest taking small short positions/booking profits on long positions.
However, if markets overcome 4600 levels successfully on a closing basis then we could see markets test 4800. Suggested stock specific shorts (from today's closing levels) for – DLF, LT, JP Associates, GMR Infra with stop losses at 580, 2840, 195 and 105. MUL could be another candidate for shorting, keep stop loss at 685.