Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Are we still slaves of the white skin?

The following was brought to my notice by a friend who was looking out for a job. Among other descriptions, the following was mentioned in the education part -
*Education preferred: * IIT + IIM / ISB / US Univ ONLY
So any damn degree from a US university - say University of Chikengunia (U.S.A.) would do because its “Aamriican” but if you are from India, you should have been on top of the rat race.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Markets on 23Jul08

With the govt. winning the trust motion yesterday with a clear margin, markets are all set to rally. Crude fell to a 6-week low at close to USD129/bbl which should further help the rally gain momentum.

An equity analyst friend working at a large foriegn brokerage mentioned that the turn of events (political stability + falling oil) now may make India a Buy for now among FIIs and a rally towards 16k is not ruled out.

Nifty should open with a gap up and a rally towards 4300, 4400 is not ruled out.

LT had been looking technically strong on the charts and I am bullish on this stock with a target close to 2700 levels. Power stocks like NTPC should also see a signficant rally (due to the nuclear deal getting a boost with govt. winning trust vote). Expect rally to 190+ levels.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Market strategy for 23Jul08

A good market closing strategy would have been to take a out of the money Nifty call in order to benefit from the political situation. For example a 4400 call would have cost INR 60 while a 4300 call would have cost INR 90. The upside is doubling of call value if the government wins the motion today evening (because then the market would open with a gap up of 2-4%). Downsides are limited to the extent of the value of the investment amount.
Another strategy would have been to buy both deep out of the money call and put options. This would however be expensive. One can limit downsides by keeping the in-the money option and squaring off the out of the money option during opening.
A third strategy would be to keep out of open positions till the outcome is known. (Not a bad idea given how our markets behave)
I am not suggesting a naked put as a good closing strategy because if one were to look at Nifty trades, it appears that a signficant short covering has occured over the last couple of days.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Jane Tu Ya jaane na - certainly the director does not know

By far the worst movie that I have ever seen in 2008. Save your ticket costs (INR 250-500), popcorn combo (INR120) and parking charges (INR10-60) and your TIME. I dont even want to waste my time in writing about this awful movie or make you waste yours in reading about it. Have the reviewers been paid to give good ratings for this movie? After Tashan, this movie wins hands down followed by Krazzy4

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Follow up for 03-Jul-08

Follow up for 03-Jul-08 – Market reversed yesterday’s gains and was 5% down during the day before some amount of short covering took place (hence a marginal recovery from day’s lows closing at -4.09%). Both LT and RIL were down 3-5%. Banks were significantly impacted during the day and ICICI and HDFC Bank were among the top losers (-7.9% and –4.2%) in the banking sector before short-covering saved them from further carnage. We had shorted LT at 2264 levels today and booked profits at 2194. Other recommended stocks did no offer opportunity to short as they opened significantly negative in the opening trades itself.

Market on 3-Jul-08

Some short-covering may be left and that is the only reason why the markets can move up today. However, given crude at USD 144/barrel bearishness is very much on cards. Any positive opening in the market today should be an opportunity to go short on the market.
Good shorts would be especially banking stocks like ICICI and HDFC bank that rose significantly yesterday. Other major stocks like LT and RIL also bearish. With DLF doing a buy back on the 10th of this month, we may see some bullishness for that reason in realty stocks.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Markets on 1Jul08

Each passing day bring with it new gloom and doom for the bulls. Although the market has reached an oversold region and hence expect a brief rally, further downsides are not ruled out. FII selling rules the roost and therefore no fundamentals can save the bulls. Nifty closed at 4040 and key support and resistances are placed at 3930/3990 and 4130/4200. Crude prices at USD 140+ a barrel have been an added dampener to the Indian stock market.
For short-term intraday trades (do not recommend delivery in these markets), Cairn is a good buy with CMP 274.7 for targets of 282. Keep stop loss at 269.5. RPL also looks bullish for targets of 176, CMP 170.55. Keep stop loss at 167.